by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — Aug. 05, 2024
While attention has turned to Iran, Israel’s genocide in Gaza continues. Mahmoud Bassal, a spokesman for Gaza’s Civil Defense, said at least 30 people were killed and 16 were missing in Aug. 4 afternoon strikes against the Hassan Salama and Nasser schools in Gaza City, where thousands of displaced people were sheltering, according to many reports.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed that the strikes targeted Hamas militants who were using the schools as “command and control centers.” The IDF elaborated their standard lie, “Numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, surveillance, and additional intelligence.” On Telegram, Hamas accused Israel of “violating all international laws and norms.”
An earlier Israeli strike hit a camp for displaced people in Deir al-Balah, around al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in central Gaza, leaving 4 people dead and 15 others injured, according to Khalil Daqran, a spokesman for al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital.
by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — Aug. 05, 2024
Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, is operating out of Israel as of today, working on preparations with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to defend against an anticipated Iranian attack, as reported by military media.
Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant during which conversation, Austin reiterated “iron-clad U.S. support for Israel’s security and right to self-defense against threats from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, Houthis, and other Iranian-backed terrorist groups,” according to the Pentagon readout. “They discussed U.S. force posture moves that the Department is taking to bolster protection for U.S. forces, support the defense of Israel, and deter and de-escalate broader tensions in the region. Secretary Austin also expressed strong support for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal.”
According to the Israeli side, Gallant briefed Austin on the “security developments in the region and IDF readiness to defend Israel against potential threats posed by Iran and its proxies,” reported the Times of Israel. “He discussed a series of scenarios and corresponding defensive and offensive capabilities,” Gallant’s office said following the overnight call. Gallant “expressed his appreciation to Secretary Austin for the close military and strategic coordination between Israel and the United States, including the current and future deployment of U.S. military capabilities and force posture changes in defense of Israel,” as well as “highlighted the importance of U.S. leadership in forming a coalition of allies and partners to defend Israel and the region from a range of aerial attacks,” the readout adds.
by Bill Jones (EIRNS) — Aug. 05, 2024
At the request of Iran, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu came to Tehran today for visits with military leaders and a meeting with the new head of state, President Masoud Pezeshkian. Shoigu also met with Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Akbar Ahmadian and the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Gen. Mohammad Bagheri. Shoigu was last in Iran in September when he was still Russian Defense Minister. According to Reuters, Russia has supplied Iran with military equipment, including with powerful surface-to-surface missiles.
During the visit, issues of Russian-Iranian cooperation in the field of security in bilateral and multilateral formats were discussed, in particular within the framework of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The parties noted the growing exchange of delegations.
In his address on July 13, Pezeshkian called Russia a valuable strategic ally and neighbor with which he plans to expand cooperation, including within the framework of BRICS, the SCO, and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that General Bagheri told Shoigu that the relations between their two countries are “strategic, deep and long-term, and will not be disrupted by the change of governments.”
by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — Aug. 05, 2024
In November and December of 2023, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), based in Arlington, Virginia, ran a wargame the results of which directly challenged assumptions about Israel’s nuclear weapons policy and when they might or might not use them. “For decades, most security analysts assumed Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons were only deployed to deter attacks and that Iran would not dare to attack Israel directly,” Henry Sokolski, NPEC executive director, wrote in a report published by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on Feb. 27, 2024.
He gave his report the headline, “Wargame Simulated a Conflict between Israel and Iran: It Quickly Went Nuclear.”
“This after-action report describes a war game originally designed nearly two years ago. It directly challenges these assumptions and suggests that military strikes between Israel and Iran—including nuclear ones—are possible.” The 35 participants in the wargame included Republican and Democratic Hill staff; U.S. Executive Branch officials and analysts; leading academic scholars; national security and Middle Eastern think tank experts; and U.S. military personnel.
The scenario of the war game involves an Israeli decision to target Iran’s nuclear program after detecting signs that Iran has begun mating nuclear warheads to missiles. Israel decides initially to strike Iran using conventionally-armed hypersonic weapons provided by the U.S., but these fail to have the desired effect. After a series of devastating strikes by both sides, and including Hezbollah, and tepid support from the U.S., Israel decides it has no choice but to launch a nuclear barrage of 50 warheads against 25 Iranian military targets (including Russian-manned air defense sites). “The aim is to cripple Iranian offensive forces and perhaps induce enough chaos to prompt the Iranian revolutionary regime to collapse,” Sokolski reports. “Almost immediately after the Israeli strike, however, Iran launches a nuclear attack of its own against an Israeli air base where American military are present.” The game ended at that point, but left a host of unanswered questions.
“The strategic uncertainties generated after an Israeli-Iranian nuclear exchange are likely to be at least as fraught as any that might arise before such a clash,” Sokolski continues. “An unspoken hope among security experts is that nuclear deterrence can work between Israel and Iran. Such optimism, however, discourages clear thinking about what might happen if deterrence fails and both countries use nuclear weapons.” During the game’s play and discussions that followed, “participants emphasized how difficult it was to develop appropriate policy responses to Israeli or Iranian nuclear use as neither contingency was adequately considered before use.”
Sokolski, along with two co-authors, had published an op-ed in the Washington Post a week earlier in which they called for an end to U.S. secrecy regarding Israel’s nuclear program. “One of the best ways to clarify these matters is for American and Israeli experts and officials to peek into the future by gaming different nuclear war scenarios,” Sokolski and his co-authors wrote in the op-ed.
“Considering the strategic risks and uncertainties that a possible nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran revealed in this game, the formulation of proportionate military, political, and economic policies to deter nuclear use appears crucial,” Sokolski concludes in his after-action report. “This requires gaming and careful planning—both efforts that the United States’ outdated policy toward Israel nuclear-related classification all but precludes.”
Though months have passed since the war game and the after-action report, the matter of Israel’s nuclear arsenal is perhaps even more relevant now than it was then, particularly when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran.